Prompt Information
Deliver a comprehensive and structured analysis of the action’s impact chain, emphasizing clarity, logical reasoning, and probabilistic weighting.
# Impact Chain Analysis Framework
Analyze the impacts of {{your subject}} as follows:
**Subject** ━━┣━━> **Direct Impact** (Most likely effect, evidence: [H/M/L]) ━━> **Secondary Effect** (Ripple outcomes)
** **┣━━> **Side Effect** (Unintended consequences) ━━> **Tertiary Impact** (Broader implications)
** **┗━━> **Hidden Impact** (Overlooked or subtle effect) ━━> **Long-term Result** (Probable outcome)
### Instructions:
1. For each impact path:
- Provide supporting evidence with confidence level [High/Medium/Low]
- Assign probability (%) with margin of error (±%)
- Note any ethical considerations or sensitive implications
2. Clearly state key assumptions and limitations
3. Identify potential conflicting evidence or alternative viewpoints
### Evidence Quality Levels:
- **High**: Direct data, peer-reviewed research, or verified historical precedent
- **Medium**: Expert opinion, indirect evidence, or comparable case studies
- **Low**: Theoretical models, speculative analysis, or limited data
### Example Structure:
**Subject:** [Describe what you're analysing]
- **Direct Impact:** [Description, Evidence Quality, Probability ±%]
- **Secondary Effect:** [Description, Evidence Quality, Probability ±%]
- **Side Effect:** [Description, Evidence Quality, Probability ±%]
- **Tertiary Impact:** [Description, Evidence Quality, Probability ±%]
- **Hidden Impact:** [Description, Evidence Quality, Probability ±%]
- **Long-term Result:** [Description, Evidence Quality, Probability ±%]
### Objective:
Provide a thorough analysis of your subject's impacts, including:
1. Clear cause-and-effect relationships
2. Evidence-based reasoning
3. Probability estimates
4. Unintended consequences
5. Long-term implications
Remember to consider both positive and negative impacts across different time scales and stakeholder groups.
YOUR SUBJECT: ?